US President Donald Trump already has a gift prepared for its three host countries – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates – ahead of his second presidential first foreign trip starting on Tuesday.According to US officials, Trump has begun to mention the Persian Gulf – the water of the water that separates the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, its official name from the country is connected to Iran – as a Gulf of Arabia or Arabian.Although Trump does not have the right to change the name officially, the symbolism is important. Arab nations have been insisting on changing names for a long time, while Iran has highlighted its own historical relations for the Gulf.Trump also promised “very, very big announcements” during his Middle East visit. “This will be one of the most important declarations about a certain subject in many years,” said Trump.
Arab hopes and concerns:
But what does Trump want to achieve? “Every destination of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, holds a set of policy priorities for US President Trump,” said Fellow Burku Ozelic, senior security research at the London -based Think Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).“Riyadh requires foreign direct investment to meet its vision 2030 correctional goals and does not want to be out of the opportunities that UAE has closed and closed by joining Abraham Accords [US-brokered diplomatic normalization agreements between Israel and a set of Arab countries]”Ozselic told DW.Diplomacy in the region derailed from Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and was close to the establishment of the resulting war diplomatic relations in Gaza, Israel and Saudi Arabia. There was almost a tripartite agreement between Jerusalem and Riyadh in the American brocade deal, as the US would have given security guarantee, a semi-Nato light and Saudi civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia.However, a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel is nowhere at this time, as “the state cannot return from its ‘red line’, that is, a reliable way to the Palestinian state,” said Ozelic.According to diplomatic sources in Washington, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stressed during his visit to the White House in April to keep Israel away from the agenda during Trump’s visit.“The Saudi side is giving priority to the business to clarify an uncomfortable position,” said DW said, Gulf Researcher and fellow Emily Tasinato on the European Council (ECFR).At the same time, “indications are that Riyadh and Trump administration are moving forward with other aspects of the mega deal, independent of the generalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel,” he said.“One aspect includes Saudi citizen atomic programs, where Trump is now ready to discuss cooperation without the need of the state to establish diplomatic relations with Israel,” Tasinatato said, “Another defense treaty is not in the format of another defense treaty, because it’s something that does not require a deal with Israel.”Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at London -based Think Tank Chautham House, also thought that the conflict between Israel and Gaza would be sidelined during Trump’s upcoming visit.“Arab countries hope that Trump’s visit will promote maximum economic connectivity, while the journey will also focus on promoting regional security cooperation with a GCC meeting. [Gulf Cooperation Council, an alliance of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman]”He told DW.But Vakil also believes that “the meeting will serve as a cover for no real progress on Gaza,” he said.Despite being in the region, Trump has not set a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Pay attention to big business:
“I see the business as a major element to assess stakes during Trump’s Gulf tour,” said Tasinato of ECFR.He said, “Many officials of the US defense firms are expected to join Trump on Trump’s visit,” he said “Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi have pledged all important American investments before Trump’s visit.”“Saudi leadership is pursuing investment and partnership with American firms and has offered $ 600 billion [€533 billion] In four years in business and investment, “he said.“The same is true for the UAE, which is planning to invest $ 1.4 trillion in the US in the next decade, focusing on artificial intelligence infrastructure and semiconductors,” said Tasinato.Several American deals have also been announced to sell aircraft and missiles to GCC countries. “Saudi-American Investment Forum [taking place in Riyadh during Trump’s visit] This should be viewed against this background, as Riyadh wants to expand its technology sector through opportunities in data centers, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, “Tasinato said.
What could be a ‘very big announcement’?
Analysts believe that Trump’s mysterious “big declaration” can be anything with either Hamas hostages held in Gaza, a potential American-Iran nuclear deal, or Iran-backed Hurthi Militia in Yemen.“For Trump, it would be a major moral and diplomatic win if a hostage release deal can be agreed with Hamas either during or during his visit,” said Ozselic of Rasi.However, Tasinato, it thinks that it is more likely that the declaration would refer to either the US-Iranian nuclear deal or Hothis of Yemen, which only agreed to an Oman-Brokeard ceasefire with the US that stops its attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, but not on Israel.Several sources have said that Iran had a supporting role in the ceasefire talks with Hauthis. This may be an indication that Iran is showing a desire to sign an nuclear deal with the US, which will probably give some relief from economic sanctions on Iran and will overcome the possibility of an Israeli military strike on the country.“There is a growing alignment about the involvement of the Yemeni dosier in the nuclear dialogue between Tehran and Washington between Saudi Arabia and the US, which is part of a broad de-siscality process in the region,” said Tasinato.In any way, it is safe to say that Trump’s declaration of surprise will also serve American business interests. “President Trump recognizes business and investment opportunities in Gulf, and wants to be able to ‘tap out’ of the Middle East, as the US Pivotes towards China, which is a long posture, said” Berku Ozelik.He said, “Saudi Arabia, calls a strong relationship with Qatar and UAE, who do not combine all fronts with each other, but collectively aspire to be heavyweight in the region, which means that the US can hand over the regional actors to secure the field.”
