Israel Pound Iran: Ayatollah on the verge – Will Kole’s rule be slippery?
Iran’s rule is subject to siege – externally by Israeli aerial attack, internal mistrust and disillusionment. The question of the same question on foreign capitals and Iranian roads is: Is the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the verge of the Islamic Republic of Khamenei?Israel’s military campaign has greatly erased Iran’s top brass, exposed its intelligence weaknesses, and thrown its nuclear program in chaos. For Khameni, now 86, this is a historical crisis – not only power, but of existence.why it matters
- Iran is not just a state. It is a democratic gore designed to bear external attack. Nevertheless today, it is somewhat deep: aristocratic betrayal, popular anger, and erosion of their own pillars – revolutionary guards, internal unity and divine validity.
- In recent times, the Israeli campaign has achieved whatever was possible, describing it as “Rising Lion”. Several Iranian generals, including Hosain Salute, Amir Ali Hazizadeh, and all parts of the nearest military brain trust of Spanish Kazmi-Sab Khameni, ended in an exact strike. These murders “have left major holes in their internal circles and increased the risk of strategic miscol.”
- On 16 June, Israel claimed “full air domination over Tehran.” Images of empty highways, closed shops and citizens fleeing from the capital were flooded on social media. Barbecue emozis mock dead general. Others transmit the map of the Tehran neighborhood which are prepared for evacuation. Nevertheless, governance emphasizes: business as usual.
- The economist said, “Iran’s default is to defy the aggressive, not to capitulate,” the economist saw. This instinct can help to survive again – or help provoke its collapse.
What is happening?
- The internal circle of Khameni has been removed: Israeli aerial attack killed most of his senior military advisors, including Hosin Salute (IRGC Commander), Amir Ali Hajizadeh (aerospace head), and Mohammad Kazmi (Spimeaster).
- “Extremely dangerous,” said a source close to the Khameni’s decision -making process. Strategic miscols are now far more likely.
- Missile strikes and sabotage are going on: Iran has launched more than 400 missiles in Israel – the most intercepted. The Israeli strike has killed Non and Ark Nuclear Facilities and allegedly damaged the underground culture hall. Fordow feature, deep dug in a mountain, remains a flashpoint.
- Popular Krodh Samers, but fear dominates: social media cheers dead generals. Young Irani calls him “enemies of people”. But the protest movements have been devoid of leaderless, fragmented and last rift. As economists say: “Governance may be weak, but its people are weak.”
- Khamenei’s son is stepping into it: a mid -level cleric Mojtaba Khamenei with deep IRGC relations is quietly strengthening power. He is seen as a potential successor, which is also supported by some reformists by Faizhe Hasmi Rafsanjani. This is less indicated in support than resignation: Mojtaba is the best bet of governance for continuity – or its most soft landing.
Sign of a collapse
- The loyalty is a rift: Israel’s ability to kill commanders in his homes suggests high-level leaks. Chronism, paranoia, and mistrust now infect the decision making.
- The military principle is failing: “A paper cat,” an Tehran Stockbroker said about Iran’s wanted missile forces. No siren warns citizens. There is no reliable rescue.
- Street sentiment is shifting: After Hajizadeh’s assassination – online ceremonies were widespread – online ceremonies responsible for down a Ukrainian airline in 2020. Some Iranians wrapped themselves in the Israeli flag.
- But there is fear under the mockri. Residents of Tehran queued in queue for fuel. Other people run into rural areas. Governance response? Rationing petrol and using social media.
A governance to survive air conditionedIf history is a guide, military humiliation rarely gives mantras to the rulers of Iran. Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), when Saddam Hussein saw the revolutionary rule as weakened, instead strengthened the clerical state and gave birth to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a power.Similarly, the campaign of Israel, while dazzling in its intelligence penetration and strategic success, still a protest: can instigate nationalism.The economist said, “Iran’s default is to defy the aggressive, not to capitulate,” the economist said. The silence of Hajizadeh’s killing of June 13 was not regretted, but anger. “We won’t show them any kind,” he announced. However, older and isolated, he is “extremely stubborn but extremely cautious,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.Within 18 hours of the first attacks, a new layer of IRGC commanders removed hundreds of counterparts missiles, which was most importantly intercepted, but symbolically important. The government did not surrender. It was loaded again.between the lines
- Khamenei has faced protest waves before – before 1999, 2009, 2022 – has forcefully crushed them. But this time is different. The army has not just been challenged. It has become hollow.
- Worse, the silence is isolated. Reliable confidants are dead. His son is considered opportunistic. And in the “axis of resistance”, their colleagues – from Syria to Hizbullah – have either uprooted or weakened.
- “We’re not taking him out (kill!), At least not for now,” Trump wrote, referring to Khameni – demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.
- Despite its public anger, the stones of silence have not changed: governance at all costs. Alex Watanka of the Middle East Institute told Reuters, “He is very stubborn, but very cautious.” In this way she has lasted since 1989.
I can do it, I can’t do it. I mean, no one knows what I am going to do. I can tell you that Iran has a lot of trouble, and they want to interact. The next week is going to be very big.
US President Donald Trump
Landscape forward
- Falls from within: Continuous strikes, aristocratic defects, and growing protests may implicate. Impossible – but is no longer unimaginable.
- Militralized succession: If Khamenei dies or steps down, Mozaba may have gained power – as a kingmaker with IRGC. Think about the modernization of Saudi-style with Shia.
- Rally-round-flag effect: prolonged war can trigger patriotism, especially if citizens are heavy. Israel’s campaign can backfire, united the Iranians behind a battered regime.
- Forever War: As stated in Foreign Policy, “War can never end up formally.” Instead, Iran can strike in waves, rebuild with clandestin, and can shed blood to its enemies from behind the screen.
Israel’s gambling: Fall or struggle?Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not made any mystery of his strategy. It is not just about destroying Fordo or Natanj. As t. Peter Beomont of the Guardian said, “Netanyahu talks about the change of governance in Iran; it means that governance is destruction.”Israel has disabled Iran’s aerial rescue, overthrowing major military sites, and erased most of its nuclear command structure. But does it pave the way for a stable transition or is a violent, field-fila disaster-rimen unclear.Even Netanyahu’s colleagues accept the limit of being obtained through force. “The protest movement lacks a leader or a general agenda,” said an Israeli security officer. “You can make a vacuum. You can’t control it.”And Iran is not without options. As the foreign policy reported, “Tehran can try to engage in war, ending his opponents or ending the ability to fight.” It can still call behind the screen, pursue cladstine nuclear growth, or even carry on cyber attacks and terror attacks abroad.(With input from agencies)
