The next big crisis of the Gulf: As the economies bring diversity, the lack of water. world News
TL; Dr:
- The World Bank has a 3-4.7% GDP growth growth
GCC During 2025-26, under the leadership of non -oil areas such as country, tourism, logistics and finance. - GCC freshwater supply is extremely low, per capita renewable water often falls below 100 square meters/year and climate change can cut GDP up to 6–14% to the middle Recion Bandy without appropriate action.
- GCC nations are promoting efforts to recover water (such as cut in Dubai reduction in a decrease system of 42% to 4.6%), uninterrupted expansion, and regional MNA investment in policy-powered water infrastructure. Balancing rapid non -oil growth with water stability is the next major challenge of the region.
As the Gulf nation moves beyond the economic diversification beyond oil, a less visible significant danger is still a sign: lack of water. The World Bank, with an increase of up to 4.9% with GDP growth for GCC in 2025, warted that the expansion is uncertainly underlined to reduce water resources when the expansion is less than climate change and increasing consumption. While the uninterestingly pledge of the uninterrupted plant and stability, the discovery of non-oil prosperity of the Gulf can falter until the development of the water security sector becomes an integral part of the strategy.
Oil development: A regional change
While Gulf economies are much more tied to hydrocarbon exports, recent signs show a successful axis:
- The World Bank estimated a non -oil GDP growth of ~ 4.6% in 2025–26, beating the contraction of the expected oil sector.
- A Reuters Polls 2025 increase the national growth rate from 3.9% (Saudi) to 4.7% (UAE), which contains non -oil activity in the form of engine.
- Exports and domestic investment in areas like tourism, logistics, finance, real estate, healthcare and education are expanding.
This change reflects continuous government efforts under the national vision; Saudi Vision 2030, UAE Centennial Plan, Qatar National Vision, and Oman Vision 2040 by increasing non-hydrocarbon investment and globe-facing business ecosystem.
Catalyst
Many major developments run this change:
- Mega and Projects and Tourism: They contribute significantly to the infrastructure and service sector jobs, especially to Saudi’s NEOM and UAE expo inteceded investments.
- Finance and Logistics: GCC nations are strengthening their roles because Dubai’s DIFC expansion, Qatar’s financial reforms and subsequent oil banking prominent regional hubs seen in the regional hub.
- Healthcare and education: Addressing domestic demand and emerging as exportable services in a broader MNA region.
- SME and Innovation: Startup ecosystems are accelerating all GCC countries, reducing dependence on oil revenue.
Water tension: hidden obstruction
Despite the successes of development, water scarcity remains a dangerous hurdle:
- According to the World Bank, per capita GCC renewable water is well under 500 square meters/year “scatter” limit, often falls below 100 meters/year.
- In some GCC countries, domestic water use is more than 500 liters/person/day, which is much higher than the global average.
- Climate estimates indicate 6–14% GDP loss by 2050 due to water access and related shock.
The results expand increased dependence on agricultural disintegration, urban service stress, and energy-educational weaknesses highlighting gynecology.
GCC reactions: from uninterrupted to governance
Governments are taking many action to remove water challenge:
- Unlawful leadership: Gulf nation produces ~ 50% global dyslened water. The World Bank reports show that Saudi’s SWCC is 20% of the global capacity.
- efficiency gains: Dubai Electricity and Water Authority dropped non-revenue water from 42% to 4.6% by 2023 through infrastructure upgradation of infrastructure.
- Reform and policy innovation: GCC state water pricing, reuse, reduction in leakage and public -private partnership are implemented to pilots.
- Multilateral support: The World Bank and UAE -led initiatives such as MBZ Water Exprise accelerates funding for sustainable dislocation technology.
Risk and opportunity forward
risk
- Environment: Brine discharge affects marine life; Surprise increases the intensity of energy and emissions.
- financial: Water infrastructure requires large-scale investment (~ $ 130–140 billion annually in Mena), almost double the current level.
- Coordination interval: Division rules, funding priorities, and water system weakens regional flexibility.
opportunity
- Green technical export: Innovation in water membrane and smart meter can be GCC export driver.
- Employment generation: Water and hygiene sector can produce thousands of domestic roles through infrastructure development.
- Regional cooperation: GCC can strengthen the stability and unite markets through GCC integration.
Policy recommendations
To maintain non -board speed between water risks, GCC governments need:
- Increase water prices and eliminate subsidy to reduce waste.
- Invest in smart infrastructure such as metering, pump and public awareness campaign.
- Promoting decentralized reuse systems for agriculture and urban cooling.
- Cost-sharing through PPP framework and expand private sector roles in O&M.
- Coordinate regional on unique standards, salty management and casual planning through GCC bodies.
The economic imbalance of GCC through tourism, trade, technology and services is gaining momentum, with non-oil growth of 4-5% annually in 2025–26. However, water insecurity is threatened by this trajectory. Without rapid efficiency corrections, permanent untouchability and regional integration, development can be constrained, GDP may decline in mid -century, and there may be tension in public finance. By integrating water-focused policies and investments in economic planning, GCC nations can ensure that their non-oil boom remains flexible, inclusive and environmentally safe, rapidly defined by climate urgency to anchor prosperity in a desert region.
