The United Nations says that strong chance average warming will be at 1.5 ° C in the next 4 years.
The United Nations on Wednesday warned that there is a possibility of 70 percent that the average warming will be more than 2025 to 2029. 1.5 ° C International Benchmark.Therefore, the planet is expected to remain at historical levels after the two -year -olds recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by World Meteorological OrganizationThe UN Weather and Climate Agency.“We have experienced 10 hottest years on records,” said WMO Deputy General Secretary KO Barrett.“Unfortunately, this WMO report does not give any indication of relief in the coming years, and means that our economies, our daily life, our ecosystem and our planet will have growing negative effects.”2015 Paris climate agreement The target is to limit global warming to below 2 ° C from pre-industrial levels-and to pursue efforts to dread it at 1.5 ° C.Humanity is calculated the targets relative to an average of 1850-1900, before humanity industrially burnt coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide-Greenhouse gas is largely responsible Climate change,More optimistic 1.5 ° C target is one that is impossible to achieve increasing number of climate scientists now, as co –2 Emissions are still increasing.
Five-year outlook
WMO’s latest projections are compiled by Britain’s Met Office National Weather Service, based on the forecasts of several global centers.The agency estimates that the global meaning for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be close to 1.2 ° C and 1.9 ° C pre-industrial average.It says that 70 percent is likely to have an average warming more than 1.5 ° C during a period of 2025–2029.“It is fully corresponding to our proximity to pass 1.5C on a long -term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s,” said Peter Thorn, director of the group of Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units at the University of Meyonth.He said, “I hope that this possibility is likely to be 100 percent in two to three years”.WMO says that 80 percent of the possibility that the current will be warm compared to the current hottest year on a record of at least one year between 2025 and 2029: 2024.
Long -term approach
To smooth natural climate variations, many methods assess prolonged warming, WMO’s Director of Climate Service Christopher Hewitt told a press conference.A approach combines comments with estimates from the next decade (2015–2034) over the last 10 years. With this method, the approximate current warming is 1.44 ° C.The best to assess warming for a long time is not yet consensus on this.Climate Monitor Copernicus of the European Union believes that the warming is currently 1.39 ° C, and projects may be reached between 1.5 ° C 2029 or soon.
2 ° C warming on radar now
Although “exceptionally unlikely” at one percent, now the next five has an above zero chance of at least one year that exceeds 2 ° C of warming.“This is the first time we have ever seen such an incident in our computer prophecies,” said Adam Skaf of Met Office.“It is shocking” and “it is likely to increase”.He recalled that a decade ago, the forecasts had shown very little possibility of a calendar year more than the first 1.5 ° C benchmark. But it passed in 2024.
Dangerous level of warming
Each part of the degree of additional warming can be intensified to melt heatwave, extreme rainfall, dried and ice cap, sea ice and glaciers.This year’s climate is not giving any relief.Last week, China recorded a temperature above 40 degrees Celsius (104 ° F) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit around 52 ° C (126 ° F), and Pakistan was buffed with deadly winds after a deep heat.“We have already hit a dangerous level of warming,” said Fraudyrak Otto, climatologist at Imperial College London, “recently with fatal floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, forest fire in Canada,”.“In 2025, relying on oil, gas and coal is a total focus.”David Faranda said from France’s CNRS National Center for Scientific Research: “Science is uneven: there is no hope of living within a safe climate window, we should cut immediately Fossil fuel emissions And accelerate infection for clean energy. ,
Other warnings
WMO said that Arctic Warming is predicted to overtake the global average over the next five years.Sea ice predictions for 2025–2029 suggest further cuts in the ocean of blessings, Berring Sea, and Okotsk.Forecasts suggest that South Asia will be wet more than the average over the next five years.And rain patterns suggest being wet compared to the average conditions in Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and Northern Siberia, and dried up compared to the average conditions on Amazon.
